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Teams that won at least 65 percent of their one-score games declined by about three wins the following year and improved just 11 percent of the time across 62 cases from 2016 to 2025. As of August 18, 2026, Denver also carries the league's largest Pythagorean overshoot at 3.0 wins.
His 0.32 EPA per dropback led the league across 602 dropbacks in 2025, and on the unstable slice — pressured, blitzed, or third and fourth down — he averaged 0.28 while 18 of the 32 primary starters went negative.
He drew 141 targets and 38.6 percent of Minnesota's air yards across 17 games — first-option usage all season — and averaged 9.4 Half-PPR points per game. Every other receiver in the 2025 weighted-opportunity top ten finished 23rd or better.
On 3,940 charted five-rusher dropbacks in 2025, pressure rate jumped to 38.3 percent from 26.2 with four rushers, yet offenses gained 0.064 EPA per dropback against the blitz versus 0.033 against four. Team blitz rate and EPA allowed were nearly uncorrelated at r = -0.09.
Eight-plus-man boxes made up 8.8 percent of NFL rushes in 2025; Judkins saw one on 45.2 percent of his 230 carries — the highest rate among 49 qualified backs — and still finished 69 rushing yards over expectation.
Across 745 consecutive-season pairs from 2016 through 2025, touchdown rate per target repeats at r = 0.205, while average depth of target repeats at r = 0.898 and air-yards share at r = 0.785. Chasing last year's touchdowns is chasing the least repeatable part of the profile.
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Scored Half-PPR · data via nflverse
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