Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers finished 2025 at 9-and-8, losing the Wild Card 31 to 27 to the Chicago Bears after blowing a 21-to-3 halftime lead — Green Bay's first playoff loss to Chicago since 1941, and a cruel ending to a year that started with championship expectations. This was supposed to be the Micah Parsons season — the blockbuster August trade, the richest non-quarterback contract in league history, the all-in swing at the NFC. And for a stretch, it looked real: a Week 1 statement win over the Lions, a Week 8 comeback from 16 down against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers, a Week 12 demolition of the Vikings. Then Parsons tore his ACL in Week 15, and the season cratered. Green Bay lost four straight to close the year, including the playoff collapse, handed the NFC North to the Bears for a fourth straight year, and walked off in January as a team better than its finish but not better than its injuries. The feel of the year: a contender that peaked in November and got muffed when it mattered most.

Let's get into the team by the numbers. Green Bay posted a per-play passing expected points added — how much each snap moved the scoreboard needle — of plus 0.23, seriously good offense, while allowing plus 0.08 per dropback, slightly worse than league-average pass defense. The Packers converted 49 percent of their third downs and allowed 41 percent, so the down-to-down operation was a strength. The turnover math is ugly — just 13 takeaways against 13 giveaways, a muffed number for a team with this kind of pass-rush talent. And the week-to-week variance tells the story: Green Bay hung 35 on the Steelers and 31 on the Lions, then put up 7 against the Eagles, 16 against the Panthers, and just 3 in the Week 18 finale at Minnesota. Boom-or-bust, and the busts came late.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. This unit smashed. Jordan Love and the air game posted plus 118.9 total passing expected points added — one of the best marks in football — at 226 yards a game with 26 touchdown passes and only 13 total offensive giveaways. The 29 sacks allowed is middle of the pack but manageable, and Love's completion percentage over expected was plus 5.1, meaning he consistently beat what a league-average quarterback would do on the same throws. Love finished with 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns, just 6 interceptions, and plus 110.6 in passing expected points added across 15 games. The explosive element was real — 64 plays of 20-plus yards, including Love's 41-yard third-and-3 touchdown to Christian Watson that put away the Week 14 Chicago game. Steady floor, high ceiling — the passing attack showed up almost every week.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. The ground game got muffed. Green Bay ran it 474 times for 2,054 yards — a solid 120.8 per game — but per-carry rushing expected points added landed at minus 0.01, meaning every handoff was, on average, slightly worse than doing nothing. The killer: a 20 percent red-zone touchdown rate on 171 snaps, and a lot of that is the run game failing to punch it in. Josh Jacobs carried the load with 929 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in 15 games, but his season rushing expected points added was minus 14.8 — the volume wasn't translating into efficient yardage. Steady floor, low ceiling — a persistently below-average run game that needed the pass to bail it out.

Next up, the pass defense. Here's where it gets complicated. Green Bay allowed plus 44.3 in passing expected points added — and on defense you want that number deeply negative, so plus 44 means the pass defense was a net negative on the year. They racked up 36 sacks and held opponents to 206.8 passing yards a game, which looks fine on the surface, but the 13-takeaway drought left the pass rush without a finishing move. The floor was ugly — 24 touchdown passes allowed, a Week 17 where Baltimore hung 41, and a playoff loss where the Bears outscored them 28-to-6 in the second half. Then Parsons' Week 15 ACL tear gutted the pass rush for the stretch run. Boom-or-bust unit, and the bust games decided the season.

And the run defense. This was quietly the most stable thing Green Bay did all year. The Packers allowed 118.1 rushing yards a game on 473 carries, good for minus 0.02 per-carry rushing expected points added — on defense, that negative number is what you want. Total rushing expected points added allowed landed at minus 9.18, a genuine strength, and opponents scored just 15 rushing touchdowns across 17 games. The run defense didn't have a singular star so much as a collective identity — a steady floor that kept Green Bay in games even when the pass defense was leaking. In a season defined by collapse, the run front was the thing that didn't break.