Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos went 14-3, claimed the number one seed in the American Football Conference, and watched their dream season die one game short of the Super Bowl, falling 10 to 7 to the New England Patriots in the Conference Championship after Bo Nix fractured his ankle in the Divisional Round win over Buffalo. This team tied a franchise record for regular-season wins, snapped a ten-year playoff-victory drought, and dethroned the Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC West. Denver lived on the razor's edge — twelve one-score wins and an eleven-game winning streak that tied the longest in franchise history. Sean Payton built a championship-caliber defense that hid the offense's rough edges, and Nix took the leap into franchise-quarterback status. The tone of 2025 in Denver: survive, then dominate, then a cruel injury one Sunday too early.

Put numbers to that arc. The Broncos scored 401 points — 23.6 per game — while allowing just 311, 18.3 per game and the third-stingiest mark in the league. The offense posted plus 53.4 expected points added through the air — how much each dropback improved Denver's chances of scoring — and breakeven on the ground at plus 0.2, while the defense allowed minus 75.8 through the air and minus 17 on the ground, and on defense those big negatives are elite. Denver converted 42 percent of its third downs and held opponents to 34 percent. This was a steady, week-to-week operation — outside the Week 16 loss to Jacksonville and the 44-point explosion against Dallas, Denver won close games by finishing drives and winning the margins.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Denver averaged 231.2 passing yards per game with 25 touchdowns against 11 interceptions, and Nix's plus 63.3 total expected points added through the air marks a genuinely positive attack — per-play expected points added of plus 0.08 is solid, not spectacular. The unit took just 23 sacks all year, excellent pass protection, but completion percentage over expected came in at minus 1.1 — Nix throwing into tight windows, receivers not bailing him out. Payton himself pointed to drops, with Denver finishing second in the league at 43. The headline is Courtland Sutton, the Pro Bowl number one receiver who caught 74 balls for 1,017 yards and 7 touchdowns with a plus 45.6 receiving expected points added. The defining snap came Week 3 at the Chargers — fourth and two from midfield, trailing ten to nothing, Nix ripped a 52-yard touchdown to Sutton down the left sideline, a play worth more than six and a half expected points. Big boy ball on a big stage — just not consistent enough, week to week, to carry the team. Trended up late, but the defense won the year.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where the numbers got muffed. Denver ran for 2,036 yards at 119.8 per game with 18 rushing touchdowns, but per-carry expected points added was essentially zero at plus 0.19 total across 439 carries — the ground game moved the ball but didn't move the chains when it mattered. Red zone touchdown rate of 19 percent is a problem — Denver got down there plenty and too often settled for Wil Lutz field goals, which is how you end up with twelve one-score wins. Rookie RJ Harvey put up 540 rushing yards, 7 rushing scores, and added 47 catches for 356 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns — a real dual threat, though his rushing expected points added came in at minus 22.9, flagging the efficiency issue. Consistent volume, middling efficiency — boom-or-bust drive to drive.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where the Broncos smashed. Vance Joseph's unit posted minus 75.8 expected points added allowed through the air — elite — while racking up 68 sacks, one of the highest totals in the league. Per-dropback expected points added allowed was minus 0.12, dominant, and they held opponents to just 18 passing touchdowns across 17 games. Pro Bowl edge Nik Bonitto bent offenses backward all year and authored one of the season's signature plays in Week 3, sacking Trey Lance, punching the ball out, and having Denver recover at the 20 — a strip-sack worth minus 5.4 expected points for the Chargers. Variance was minimal — this unit traveled, showed up in cold games and hot ones, and is why Denver won 12 one-score games instead of losing them.

And the run defense. Denver allowed 91.2 rushing yards per game at 3.9 per carry, giving up just 11 rushing touchdowns on 397 opponent carries, with rushing expected points added allowed of minus 17 — the run defense consistently took points off the board. Per-carry expected points added allowed of minus 0.04 confirms it: a steady, stout, every-week floor. Alex Singleton led this team with 135 tackles playing just weeks after surgery for testicular cancer — a story that defines the toughness of this group. No boom-or-bust here, just a wall.