Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars finished 2025 at 13 and 4, won the AFC South, and had their year ended at home in the Wild Card round by the Buffalo Bills, 27 to 24. Listen — this was a full-blown breakout. First-year head coach Liam Coen walked in, told Trevor Lawrence to cut it loose, and the Jaguars smashed. A Week 5 Monday night statement over the Kansas City Chiefs — their first win over Kansas City since 2009 — launched an eight-game closing streak that made them one of the scariest teams in the AFC. The sting is the finish: outrushing the Bills 154 to 79, holding James Cook to 46 yards, and still losing on a late Josh Allen touchdown. A gigantic leap forward with an ending that, in Coen's own words, was not good enough for the full end-of-season standard.

Let's talk team by the numbers. The Jaguars scored a franchise-record 474 points at 27.9 per game, allowed 19.8, and finished plus 138 in point differential — fourth-best in the league. Their total passing expected points added — how much the passing game improved their scoring chances all season — was plus 35.7, while the run game checked in at minus 3, basically neutral. The defense is where the story pops: a passing expected points added allowed of minus 94.2, and on defense that big negative number is elite. They converted 40 percent on third down and forced 29 takeaways on the official unit sheet — 31 by league count, second in the NFL. Outside of one ugly Week 7 blowout loss to the Rams and a Week 10 shootout in Houston, the Jaguars scored at least 23 in 14 of 17 games. Steady floor, rising ceiling — and the ceiling kept rising after the bye, when they went 9 and 1 averaging 32.8 points a game.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. 236.8 passing yards per game, 29 touchdowns through the air, 18 giveaways, and a total passing expected points added of plus 35.7 at roughly plus 0.06 per drop back — solid, not spectacular, but trended up sharply late in the year. Lawrence was sacked 41 times, a real blemish, and the single most painful snap of the season was a strip-sack-six against Houston in Week 10 worth more than six expected points the wrong way. After the Week 8 bye, Coen told Lawrence to cut it loose, and Lawrence set a franchise record with 38 total touchdowns — 29 passing, 9 rushing — and became an MVP finalist. Your headline contributor is Trevor Lawrence: 4,007 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, plus 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores. Started uneven, finished dominant — that's the passing offense in one line.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. 116.1 rushing yards per game, 22 rushing touchdowns on 470 carries, and a total rushing expected points added of minus 3 — efficient enough to stay on schedule but rarely tilting the field by itself. Per carry they sat at minus 0.01 — league average — more steady hum than weekly explosion, with 66 total explosive plays across offense at 3.9 a game. Steady floor, low ceiling. Travis Etienne carried the load with 1,107 rushing yards on 260 carries and 7 rushing scores, headlined by a 48-yard touchdown burst in the Week 4 win over the 49ers that set the tone for the season. Consistent, not dominant.

Next up, the pass defense. Anthony Campanile's group posted a passing expected points added allowed of minus 94.2 — on defense, that big negative number is elite, one of the best marks in the league. They gave up 231.4 passing yards per game, 25 passing touchdowns, and produced 32 sacks — not a dominant pass-rush number, but paired with 29 takeaways on the unit sheet and a red-zone touchdown rate allowed of just 19 percent, this secondary bent without breaking. The biggest year-over-year swing in football: the first NFL team ever to go from fewer than 10 takeaways one year to 30-plus the next. And the signature play tells the whole story — Week 5 Monday night, tied at 14, third quarter, Patrick Mahomes on the 3-yard line throwing for a go-ahead score. Devin Lloyd jumped the route and took it 99 yards the other way, a 12-plus expected points swing on one snap, the moment a franchise changed its own ceiling. Steady, opportunistic, and the best unit on this team.

And the run defense. 86.3 rushing yards allowed per game, just 13 rushing touchdowns surrendered all season, and a total rushing expected points added allowed of minus 14.3 at minus 0.04 per carry — rock-solid across the board, steady floor with a high floor to match. They held the league's leading rusher, James Cook, to 46 yards on 15 carries in the Wild Card loss, and that wasn't a one-off — this front was stout all year, rarely gashed, with the Week 10 loss in Houston the only real blemish. A collective front-seven effort that handed the offense a short field again and again. The Jaguars ran the ball, stopped the run, and took it away — and that's why 13 wins, even with a Wild Card exit, is a foundation built to last.