Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished 2025 at 8 and 9, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019 after a Week 18 win over the Panthers wasn't enough once the Falcons beat the Saints the next day. That's the gut punch — in their 50th anniversary season, the Bucs raced to a 6 and 2 start that felt like their best team since 2021. Then the bye hit, and everything unraveled. Tampa lost seven of their final nine, including a Week 14 home loss to a two-win Saints team that flipped the NFC South to Carolina. Injuries gutted the offense, the defense sprang leaks it never patched, and a fourth straight offensive coordinator couldn't keep the operation from stalling. What looked like a breakout turned into one of the more jarring collapses in recent franchise memory — the Bucs got muffed.

Let's put numbers on the slide. Tampa Bay's offense finished at minus 15.9 in total passing expected points added — the metric that measures how much each play moved the needle toward scoring — and just plus 6.4 on the ground, a unit barely above water all year. The defense was worse: plus 41.1 passing expected points added allowed, and on defense, a positive number that big is bad news — opposing passers helped their teams every dropback. Tampa converted 41 percent of third downs and forced 22 takeaways, roughly 1.3 per game, middle of the pack. The consistency read is brutal — boom-or-bust all year. They hit 38 in Seattle and 30 against the 49ers, then got held to 9 in Detroit, 7 in Los Angeles, and 17 in Miami. Five of their nine losses came by a single possession.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Tampa's minus 15.9 in total passing expected points added tells the story — slightly below league average, a major step back from what this group has shown. The Bucs averaged 220.9 passing yards per game with 26 passing touchdowns against 16 total offensive giveaways. Baker Mayfield started all 17 games for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, with a completion percentage over expected of minus 2.5 — he completed passes at a rate slightly below what an average quarterback would on the same throws. Boom-or-bust in the purest sense: 64 explosive plays, about 3.8 a game, but drive-killers came in bunches too. The clearest snapshot came in the Week 12 loss in Los Angeles, when Mayfield's first-quarter pass intended for Cade Otton was picked off and returned 50 yards for a touchdown — a minus 8.7 expected points added swing on one snap, and a perfect distillation of the post-bye collapse.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. Tampa's plus 6.4 in total rushing expected points added was break-even, a hair above league average per carry at plus 0.01, on 115.2 yards per game and 27.3 carries. Red zone scoring was the real problem — 28 touchdowns on 149 red zone snaps, a 19 percent rate among the worst in football, and a huge reason drives kept stalling into field goals. This was a committee by necessity, and Rachaad White led the group with 572 yards and 4 scores on 132 carries. Boom-or-bust on the ground too — Tampa ran for chunks against the 49ers and Seahawks, then got flattened in Detroit and Los Angeles.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where the season truly got muffed — plus 41.1 in passing expected points added allowed, a bottom-tier figure, with 254.8 passing yards per game and 30 passing touchdowns surrendered. Per play, opposing quarterbacks generated plus 0.07 expected points added every dropback, which over a full season is a siren. Thirty-seven sacks is a respectable raw number, but it didn't translate to drive-ending pressure when it mattered, and opponents scored touchdowns on 25 percent of their red zone trips. Safety Antoine Winfield was the one clear standout, with a Week 3 interception of Justin Fields deep in Tampa territory and a strip-sack of Tyrod Taylor the same game — the kind of momentum-flipping plays this secondary didn't make enough of. Todd Bowles threw the group under the bus after the Week 15 loss to the Falcons, and the tape backs him up.

And the run defense. This unit smashed — minus 27.95 in total rushing expected points added allowed is genuinely elite, and on defense, that big negative is the good kind. Tampa allowed 99.6 rushing yards per game, and per carry, opposing backs generated minus 0.07 expected points added — every handoff actively hurt the other team. Sixteen rushing touchdowns allowed is middling, but the week-to-week read was steady floor — they held up against the Lions, the 49ers, and both Panthers matchups. Lavonte David and the front seven were the reason this team had a pulse at all down the stretch.