Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers finished 2025 at 11-6, grabbed the seven seed, then ran into a buzzsaw in Foxborough — a 16 to 3 Wild Card loss to the Patriots that ended the year in the first weekend. Year two of the Jim Harbaugh era started like a dream — three and oh out of the gate, including a Week 1 statement over the Chiefs — and it validated the floor this team has built. But the ceiling? That's where they got muffed. The offensive line turned into a MASH unit — Rashawn Slater gone for the year in August, Joe Alt lost in Week 9 — and what should have been a high-flying Herbert-led attack spent the back half scratching and clawing. Eleven wins is real. Back-to-back playoff berths for the first time since oh-eight and oh-nine is real. So is the fact that they still haven't ended a 15-year AFC West title drought or won a playoff game with Justin Herbert.

Let's talk about the team by the numbers. On a per-play basis, this was a defense-first football team — minus 50.2 expected points added against the pass, minus 29 against the run, and coaching the listener here, those big negative numbers on defense are flat-out elite. The offense finished at minus 33.9 passing expected points added, meaning every dropback on average slightly hurt their scoring chances — a stunning number given the quarterback. They converted 46 percent of third downs, strong, but only 17 percent of red zone snaps turned into touchdowns — a bottom-of-the-league mark that tells you everything about how this offense stalled when the field shrank. Week to week, a boom-or-bust outfit: 37 on the Vikings, 34 on the Cowboys, then stomped 35 to 6 in Jacksonville in Week 11 and just 3 points in the Wild Card. Consistent floor, wildly inconsistent ceiling.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. 232 passing yards per game, 26 touchdowns, 19 giveaways, and the number that tells the whole story — 60 sacks allowed, making Justin Herbert the most pressured quarterback in football. Per-play passing expected points added came in at minus 0.05, a damning number for this kind of arm talent, and the direct fingerprint of losing both starting tackles. Herbert was a warrior — 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, plus 498 yards and 2 scores on the ground in 16 games, playing the final month with a broken left hand. The unit flashed fireworks — a 60-yard Johnston strike in Vegas — but the sack number and the minus 33.9 passing expected points added tell you the protection and scheme failed this passing game more often than it should have. Boom-or-bust, and the bust showed up when it mattered most.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. 122 yards per game, 455 carries, 10 rushing touchdowns, and a per-carry rushing expected points added of just plus 0.02 — league-average stuff, a disappointment on a team with Herbert's passing game. Kimani Vidal led the committee with 643 yards but finished at minus 14.1 rushing expected points added, meaning his average carry actively cost the offense scoring equity — boom-or-bust, great against the Raiders and Cowboys, invisible against Jacksonville and Denver. Only 10 rushing touchdowns out of 28 total red-zone scores is the damning split — when the line couldn't hold up, the run game couldn't finish drives.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where the Chargers absolutely smashed — minus 50.2 expected points added allowed through the air, meaning every dropback against this secondary, on average, hurt the opponent's scoring chances, and again, big negative numbers on defense are elite. They allowed just 194 passing yards per game, 16 passing touchdowns all season, generated 45 sacks, and held opponents to 36 percent on third down. The trade deadline pickup of edge rusher Odafe Oweh from the Ravens was a game-changer — 4 sacks in his first four games, then bookending his season with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles on Drake Maye in the Wild Card loss. And this unit had takeaway juice — Tarheeb Still ripped an interception off Jalen Hurts in overtime against the Eagles in Week 14 to seal a 22 to 19 win, one of the signature plays of the whole season. Jesse Minter's group was the backbone of this 11-win team, full stop.

And the run defense. 106 rushing yards allowed per game, 16 rushing touchdowns surrendered, and minus 29 rushing expected points added allowed on the year — another strong negative number meaning the Chargers consistently stuffed opposing ground games below expectation. Per carry, they held the league to a minus 0.07 rushing expected points added clip — a steady floor that didn't get gashed week after week, even as the offense lost its footing. Clean, physical, trustworthy — this run defense did its job every single Sunday.