Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills finished 2025 at twelve and five, grabbed the number six seed, knocked off Jacksonville in the Wild Card for their first road playoff win since 1992, then watched it end in overtime at Denver, thirty-three to thirty. Classic Buffalo — a four and oh start, a league-leading rushing attack, Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things, and another January heartbreak that cost Sean McDermott his job after nine seasons. The ceiling was enormous — see the Week 15 twenty-one point road comeback at New England that snapped the Patriots' ten-game win streak. The floor got ugly — a Week 10 thirty to thirteen beatdown in Miami, a Week 12 slip in Houston, and a Week 17 home loss to Philadelphia that cost them the AFC East for the first time since 2019. The tone is simple — elite when Allen cooked and the ground game hummed, muffed when the defense couldn't get off the field and turnovers piled up. Dominant in stretches, vulnerable in others, one game short of a conference title run.

The team-wide numbers tell the story. Buffalo's offense posted plus eighty-six expected points added passing and plus fifty-seven rushing — expected points added measures how much each play improved scoring chances, so plus one-forty-four combined is an elite full-season print. On defense, they posted minus fifty-seven expected points added allowed through the air — on defense, that big negative is what you want, and this pass defense genuinely suppressed opponents. The run defense was a different story, allowing plus forty-two expected points added, meaning opposing rushes actively helped the other team. Third downs broke their way — forty-seven percent on offense, forty-one percent allowed — and they forced twenty takeaways against eighteen giveaways. Week to week was boom over steady — forty-plus four times, held to nineteen or fewer four times. When they smashed, they smashed. When they got muffed, it got loud.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Buffalo threw for two hundred thirty-four yards per game with twenty-nine touchdowns and a per-play passing expected points added of plus point one-six — genuinely efficient, even if the raw volume doesn't leap off the page, because this offense was built to run. Forty sacks allowed and eighteen giveaways were the concern, and they showed up in the losses. Josh Allen was again the engine — three thousand six hundred sixty-eight yards, twenty-five touchdowns through the air, ten interceptions, plus seventy-one expected points added as a passer, and a completion percentage over expected of plus two point nine, meaning he completed passes nearly three points above what an average quarterback would on those same throws. The defining passing moment came Week 9 against Kansas City — third and eight, Allen drops it deep right to Dalton Kincaid for the touchdown, a plus three point three expected points added play that set the tone for a twenty-eight to twenty-one statement win over the Chiefs. The receiving room was balanced, boom-or-bust by week, and lived off Allen creating.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This was the identity — one hundred sixty-one rushing yards per game, thirty touchdowns, plus fifty-seven rushing expected points added, and the best rushing yardage total in the entire NFL. Smashed unit, plain and simple. James Cook was the hammer — one thousand six hundred twenty-one yards on three hundred nine carries, twelve rushing scores, with chunk runs of sixty-four against Carolina, forty-five against Houston, and forty-four against both Cleveland and the Jets. Add Allen's fourteen rushing touchdowns — third most by any player in the league — and defenses could not solve it. The consistency was remarkable — blowouts, close games, domes, late-season cold, it showed up everywhere. Joe Brady built everything off this, and it's why Brady is now the head coach.

Next up, the pass defense. Minus fifty-seven expected points added allowed through the air, one hundred seventy passing yards allowed per game, thirty-six sacks, and just nineteen passing touchdowns surrendered — the negative expected points added is exactly what you want on defense. The takeaway machine ran hot at the right moments — Joey Bosa's Week 13 strip-sack at Pittsburgh that Christian Benford scooped for a touchdown, a minus eight point five expected points added swing for the Steelers. The issue wasn't coverage — it was consistency of pressure. Thirty-six sacks across seventeen games is middle of the pack, and the inability to consistently pressure the quarterback was a real weakness. Boom plays yes — steady heat, not quite.

And the run defense. Here's where it got muffed. Buffalo allowed one hundred thirty-six rushing yards per game, twenty-four rushing scores, and plus forty-two rushing expected points added allowed — a positive number on that side means opposing ground games moved the needle. Per-carry expected points added allowed was plus point zero-nine, genuinely poor, and it cracked open in the ugliest losses — Week 10 in Miami and Week 6 in Atlanta both featured opponents controlling the clock on the ground. Boom-or-bust leaning bust, and it's why the defensive coordinator chair is changing hands.