New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints finished 2025 at 6 and 11, dead last in the NFC South, eliminated by a Week 18 loss in Atlanta. And yet — this season had two faces. Face one was a freefall: 1 and 8 under new head coach Kellen Moore, including a Week 3 blowout in Seattle and a Week 9 loss to the Rams that hit rock bottom. Face two was a pulse — rookie quarterback Tyler Shough took over and the Saints went 5 and 3 down the stretch, including two wins over the division-champion Panthers and a Week 14 win in Tampa. The first half got muffed. The second half found a foundation. A lost year on the scoreboard, but not a wasted one.

By the numbers, this was a team outscored meaningfully but not blown off the field. The passing offense finished at minus 50.5 in total expected points added — how many points the passing game cost them versus league-average expectation — and the rushing offense chipped in another minus 43.2. Bottom-tier offensive profile. Third down was middle of the pack at 40 percent, but the red zone got muffed — 20 touchdowns on 126 trips, a 16 percent rate that is flat-out unplayable. Turnover math hurt too: 23 giveaways against 20 takeaways. Week to week, it was boom-or-bust leaning bust — three games scoring 13 or fewer, stretches of 3, 10, and 10 points, before the offense finally stabilized into the 20s in the final month.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Per-play passing expected points added came in at minus 0.08 — below league average on every dropback — on 236.9 passing yards per game, 19 touchdowns, 23 giveaways, and 49 sacks allowed. Yes, 49. That protection breakdown is the single loudest story of this passing attack, and the unit was boom-or-bust, rhythm only in flashes. Spencer Rattler opened 1 and 7 with 1,586 yards, 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions before the switch; rookie Tyler Shough took over in Week 9 and finished 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 picks over 11 games, with a 68 percent completion rate on intermediate throws that led the NFL. The ceiling was real — Chris Olave smashed, 100 catches for 1,163 yards and 9 scores on a 29 percent target share, including a 62-yard bomb from Shough on third and eight in Week 10 in Carolina that announced the rookie had arrived.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where the Saints truly got muffed: a rushing expected points added of minus 43.2 — one of the worst marks in the league — on 1,617 yards across 17 games, 95.1 per contest, and just 9 rushing touchdowns on 429 carries. Per carry, minus 0.1 expected points added. Alvin Kamara had the worst efficiency season of his career: 471 yards on 131 carries, 1 rushing touchdown, and a rushing expected points added of minus 28.8 across 11 games. Not boom-or-bust — a steady, low-ceiling grind, quietly below the line every single week.

Next up, the pass defense. This was the surprise of the season: a passing expected points added allowed of minus 24.5 — on defense, negative is good, meaning they took points off the board versus expectation — alongside 196.2 passing yards per game allowed, 25 touchdowns, and 45 sacks generated. Third down allowed sat at a genuinely strong 35 percent. The pass rush showed up in splash plays — Jordan Howden returned a scoop-and-score 86 yards to the house in the Week 5 win over the Giants. The staff held four of the final eight opponents under 20 points, and the unit finished ninth in total defense leaguewide. This group smashed relative to expectations, and trended up late in the year.

And the run defense. A rushing expected points added allowed of minus 36.3 — again, negative is good on defense, meaning they suppressed rushing value on every carry — even as they gave up 122.1 rushing yards per game on 498 carries and 12 rushing touchdowns. Per attempt, minus 0.07. The volume of yards is uglier than the efficiency suggests; early in blowouts like Week 3 in Seattle and Week 9 against the Rams, they got run over late. But by the back half, the front held up — steady floor, low ceiling. On a 6 and 11 team, steady on that side of the ball is a real building block.