Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the 2025 regular season 10 and 7, won the AFC North for the first time since 2020, and then got smothered in the Wild Card round — a 30 to 6 home loss to the Houston Texans that ended Mike Tomlin's nineteen-year run as head coach. This was the Aaron Rodgers season — the spring signing that dominated headlines, the quarterback gamble that actually worked in stretches, and a year that lived on a knife's edge from September through January. They started 4 and 1, sagged to 6 and 6 by Week 13 with the fanbase booing Renegade and calling for Tomlin's job, then ripped off a Week 14 win in Baltimore and closed on a Sunday Night Football division-clincher against the Ravens in Week 18 to salvage the whole thing. The feel of the year was survival — a Hall of Fame quarterback, one superstar pass rusher, and just enough late-game magic to climb back into games they had no business being in. Then the playoffs arrived, the Texans defense showed up, and the whole operation got muffed on Monday night in the worst home playoff loss in franchise history.

Let's do the numbers. Pittsburgh scored 397 points, 15th in the league, and allowed 387, 17th — roughly 23.4 points scored per game against 22.8 allowed, a league-average scoring margin that matches the 10 and 7 record almost exactly. The passing offense finished at plus 16.6 expected points added on the season — a measure of how much every passing snap improved their chances of scoring, and plus 16.6 is slightly above water, nothing more. The defense allowed plus 18.73 passing expected points added — and for defense you want that number negative, so plus 18.73 is a losing number, below league average. Third down was 40 percent on offense and 42 percent allowed on defense — dead even, which is why so many games came down to the final drive. The variance was real — wins by 2 and by 22, losses by 2 and by 19 — boom-or-bust on a weekly basis, never boring, rarely comfortable.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Pittsburgh threw for 213.6 yards per game with 26 touchdowns and 14 offensive turnovers, and the total expected points added through the air came in at plus 16.6 — the whole season in a number. Rodgers was the headline and delivered a tight stat line — 3,322 yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a personal passing expected points added of plus 26.8 across 16 games. The unit lived on explosive shots and red-zone efficiency — 52 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, roughly 3.1 per game, and 30 red-zone touchdowns on 166 snaps. The defining throw of the year came in Week 4 against the Minnesota Vikings, when Rodgers hit DK Metcalf on a short middle route that turned into an 80-yard touchdown — 66 yards after the catch — the single most valuable play of Pittsburgh's season at plus 6.4 expected points added. Boom-or-bust all the way — they'd drop 34 on the Jets in Week 1 and 34 on the Bengals in Week 11, then put up 7 against the Bills in Week 13 and 6 in the playoff loss. When it hit, it smashed; when it didn't, the offense disappeared.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. The ground game averaged 103.8 yards per game on 23.2 carries, 16 rushing touchdowns, and a total rushing expected points added of plus 7.45 — league average, slightly positive per carry at plus 0.02, steady floor, modest ceiling. Jaylen Warren carried the load — 958 rushing yards on 211 carries, 6 rushing touchdowns, another 40 catches for 333 yards — a genuine dual-threat back. The variance tracked the offense as a whole: efficient in wins at Detroit in Week 16 and Baltimore in Week 14, invisible in flat losses at the Chargers in Week 10 and Cleveland in Week 17. The red-zone touchdown rate of 18 percent was the unit's anchor — when they got close, they usually finished.

Next up, the pass defense. The secondary allowed 261 yards per game through the air with 30 touchdowns and a passing expected points added allowed of plus 18.73 — and for a defense you want that deep in the negative, so plus 18.73 got muffed. The bright spot was the pass rush and the takeaway game — 48 sacks and 25 total takeaways, about 1.5 a game. TJ Watt anchored the rush even through a partially collapsed lung that cost him Week 16 — 53 tackles and 7 sacks across 13 games, including a strip-sack-and-recovery against the Colts in Week 9 that was one of the most valuable defensive plays of the year. The headline number — plus 18.73 expected points added allowed through the air — is why Teryl Austin's defense drew criticism all season. Boom-or-bust, just like the offense: capable of choking a game out, capable of getting picked apart by the Bengals, Packers, Bills, and Texans.

And the run defense. This was the softest part of the team — 114.2 rushing yards allowed per game, 10 rushing touchdowns surrendered, and a total rushing expected points added allowed of plus 0.84, with a per-carry figure right at zero. Not a disaster, not a strength, and the low point came in the game where Pittsburgh surrendered 249 rushing yards, the most ever allowed at Acrisure Stadium and the worst run-defense performance by the franchise since 1975. The unit couldn't hold a standard — some weeks they stoned drives at the goal line, other weeks they got gashed for chunk runs and couldn't get off the field. Average on paper, boom-or-bust in practice.