Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs finished 2025 at 6 and 11, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and snapped a ten-year postseason streak that ranked second-longest in the NFL. The dynasty cracked. Three straight Super Bowl trips, nine straight AFC West titles, seven straight conference championship games — gone, in a season defined by close-game futility and a Week 15 ACL tear that ended Patrick Mahomes' year and Kansas City's. They went 1 and 9 in one-score games, got swept by the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, and lost their final six straight, including an 0 and 4 December. The statement wins were there — a Week 4 beatdown of the Baltimore Ravens, a 31 to nothing shutout of the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7 — but every time Andy Reid's team looked ready to roll, a fourth-quarter field goal flipped the other way. This wasn't a team that got blown out. This was a team that got muffed one possession at a time.

The numbers tell the one-score story: 20 and a half points scored per game against 19 and a third allowed, a points differential of barely a point. The passing game finished at plus 25.2 in total expected points added — a stat measuring how much each play improved scoring chances — a hair above league average, and the ground game added plus 11.4. On defense, they allowed minus 18.5 in rushing expected points added — negative is elite — and dead zero per play through the air. The consistency problem was all on offense: 37 on the Ravens and 31 on the Raiders, but 9, 10, 12, and 13 in four losses down the stretch. Third down came in at 38 percent offensively and 44 percent allowed — both sides bleeding on money downs, and that's the math of a 6 and 11 team.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. 232 passing yards per game, 23 touchdowns, 15 giveaways, and a brutal 47 sacks allowed — that protection number is the red flag of the whole unit. The plus 25.2 in total passing expected points added sounds fine until you remember this is a Mahomes offense, and fine isn't the standard. In 14 games before the ACL tear, Mahomes threw for 3,587 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, added 422 rushing yards and 5 scores, and posted a plus 68.2 individually — still the engine, but boom-or-bust around him. One play captured it: Week 5 in Jacksonville, third quarter, 14 to 14, second and 3 at the Jaguars 3, Mahomes throws short middle, Devin Lloyd picks it and returns it 99 yards for a touchdown — a minus 12.66 expected points swing on one snap, and the Chiefs lost by 3. That was the season. When Mahomes went down in Week 15, Chris Oladokun started the last two, and the operation collapsed.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. 107 yards per game, 15 touchdowns, plus 11.4 in total rushing expected points added, and a respectable plus 0.03 per carry — steady floor, low ceiling. This was a committee, but Kareem Hunt led the room with 611 yards and 8 scores on 163 carries and became the short-yardage identity, converting fourth-and-1 touchdowns against the Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos — a goal-line hammer the Chiefs leaned on when the passing game stalled. Only 15 rushing touchdowns on the year and a red-zone touchdown rate of 19 percent that never threatened anybody.

Next up, the pass defense. Minus 1.28 in total passing expected points added allowed, right at zero per play, 35 sacks, and 6th in the league in points allowed at 19.3 per game — this unit was the bright spot, steady all year. Steve Spagnuolo's group was the reason Kansas City stayed in every one-score game. But the takeaway number was the ceiling: only 13 on the season, less than one a game. When they did get the ball, it mattered — Week 8 against the Commanders, first quarter, Marcus Mariota floats a short left throw and Mike Danna reads it for a pick at the 22, worth minus 6.64 expected points to Washington, and the Chiefs rolled to 28 to 7. 205 yards per game allowed through the air was top-ten work. No true collapses — just a group that needed one more splash playmaker to flip close games.

And the run defense. Minus 18.5 in rushing expected points added allowed — that negative number is the tell — with 106 yards per game, 14 touchdowns given up, and minus 0.04 per carry, top-third-of-the-league work and steady all year. Nick Bolton's goal-line stop and forced fumble on Trevor Lawrence in Week 5 — fourth and 1 at the 1-yard line, stuffed cold, recovered by George Karlaftis — was the archetype. No 200-yard meltdowns, a real strength on a team that didn't have many. The run defense did its job. The other eleven on the other side couldn't close the games this unit kept winnable.