Houston Texans

The Houston Texans finished 2025 at 12 and 5, stormed into the playoffs for the third straight year, and watched it end in the Divisional Round, 28 to 16 to New England. What a strange, wonderful, maddening ride. Houston started 0 and 3 for the second time in three years, sat at 3 and 5 after a Week 9 home loss to Denver, then ripped off nine straight wins to close the regular season — worst-to-first on their own calendar. A historically great defense carried the ugly stretch. An offensive line that kept getting C.J. Stroud hit capped the ceiling, and four Stroud interceptions in Foxborough — with Nico Collins sidelined from a Wild Card concussion — ended the dream. The Patriots loss was the scar.

The team-level numbers tell it fast. Houston scored 404 points (23.8 a game) and allowed just 295 (17.3 a game) — the second-stingiest scoring defense in football and a franchise record. That differential is the whole story in one line. Per play, the offense was league average — plus 0.04 expected points added per pass, meaning each dropback added about a twenty-fifth of a point to Houston's scoring expectation, and minus 0.08 per rush, a drag. The defense's per-play passing expected points added allowed was minus 0.19 — and on defense, a big negative is elite. Third down was a wash at 37 percent both ways. After Week 9 the Texans never scored fewer than 16 and never allowed more than 30 — about as steady a contender floor as you'll find.

Now let's talk about the passing offense. Houston threw for 232.7 yards a game, 24 touchdowns, 11 giveaways, and plus 22.2 total passing expected points added — meaning the pass game added about 22 points of scoring value above an average offense. Fine. Not elite, fine. Boom-or-bust early: punchless in the 0 and 3 start, then genuinely dangerous once Nick Caley settled in as play-caller and Stroud cleared concussion protocol. Thirty-one sacks allowed is the number that haunts this group; Stroud has now been sacked 113 times in 46 career starts. The headliner was Nico Collins, who in 15 games caught 71 balls for 1,117 yards and 6 touchdowns on a 24 percent target share, with plus 39.3 receiving expected points added — a number-one receiver having a number-one receiver year. The moment that captured it came Week 15 against Arizona: second and 8, Stroud hit Collins on a middle-breaking route and Collins ran 57 yards untouched. That's the version that can beat anyone. They just didn't get it often enough.

Now let's dig into the rushing offense. This is where Houston got muffed. 109.4 rushing yards a game, 9 rushing touchdowns all season, and minus 36.1 total rushing expected points added — meaning the run game cost Houston roughly 36 points of scoring value versus a league-average ground attack. Minus 0.08 per carry is bottom-of-the-league stuff, a steady drag with no ceiling. There was no week where the Texans lined up and pounded a defense into submission. Woody Marks led the backfield with 703 rushing yards on 196 carries plus 24 catches for 208 and three receiving scores, but the committee never produced. The rebuilt interior of the offensive line is the reason, and it's the single clearest weakness on this roster.

Next up, the pass defense. This is where Matt Burke's unit wrote the season. Minus 109.4 total passing expected points added allowed — again, on defense that big negative is elite. The Texans allowed just 205.1 passing yards a game, gave up 20 passing touchdowns, posted 47 sacks, and collected 27 takeaways, a defining 1.6 a game. Per dropback, they bled minus 0.19 expected points added out of every opposing pass, a top-of-the-league rate — steady week after week, no single quarterback lit them up. Will Anderson Jr. was the straw that stirred it with 11.5 sacks, and the signature moment came Week 11 at Tennessee: third and 10, Cam Ward dropped back, Anderson came clean, stripped him, and recovered his own sack-fumble at the Titans 34 to flip the game. This was the best Texans pass defense in franchise history, and it is not close.

And the run defense. Same story, quieter voice. Houston allowed 94.1 rushing yards a game on 3.8 a carry, minus 0.05 expected points added per carry allowed, and a minus 19.7 total — a legitimate negative, which on defense is good. Only 13 rushing touchdowns surrendered all year. Consistent from opening week through the playoff loss — nothing boom-or-bust, opponents simply could not establish the ground game. That's the identity. That's the floor that kept Houston in every game during the 0 and 3 start and powered the nine-game run to 12 and 5.