an MVP-finalist QB4 finish with a genuine rushing floor in year one of the Coen system, priced QB10. Nine rushing scores regress and the accuracy lags, but the gap is the value.
Trevor Lawrence 2026 Season Preview — an MVP finalist at QB10
Show notes & transcript▾
Trevor Lawrence was an MVP finalist last season — the number-four fantasy quarterback in total points, QB1 on a per-game basis down the stretch. He's the tenth quarterback off the board. That's a steep discount on a career year. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was the breakout the draft slot always promised: nineteen-nine a game, QB5 per game and QB4 in total, on four thousand passing yards, twenty-nine touchdowns, twelve picks, plus three hundred fifty-nine rushing yards and nine rushing scores in Liam Coen's first year. The signature was a five-touchdown, forty-four point eruption against the Jets in Week 15. Down the second-half stretch he was the QB1, period.
The arc is a player finally arriving: eleven-seven, seventeen-four, sixteen-four, fourteen-five — and then a career-best nineteen-nine. The Coen system unlocked him, and the comfort should only grow in year two.
Now the honest accounting, because we don't oversell. His rushing share, twenty-seven percent, puts him in the rushing-floor tier — the profile our research says repeats top-six at sixty-one percent versus twenty-four for pocket passers — which is the structural reason the floor is real. But two cautions: nine rushing touchdowns is a number that regresses, and his accuracy was actually mediocre, a completion percentage over expected near the bottom of the league. So this wasn't an efficiency masterpiece; it was a volume-and-rushing-driven QB4 finish. The point is, even granting both caveats, a QB4 finish with a rushing floor priced at QB10 is too cheap.
The situation, per the reports, is the bull case: a second year in Coen's fantasy-friendly system, a loaded receiver room, and a coach who says there's "so much room to continue to improve." Quarterback and scheme continuity is exactly what carries a breakout forward.
The price: pick eighty-one, the tenth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. He finished QB4 with a genuine rushing floor and an ascending offense, and he's priced QB10. The counter: the nine rushing scores regress, the accuracy needs to catch up to the production, and you can wait on quarterback. But the gap between a QB4 finish and a QB10 price is the value, and the floor underneath it is the safe kind.
September watch: the rushing volume — the floor; and whether the accuracy climbs in year two of the system, the thing that would make him elite rather than merely underpriced. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
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2025: 4,007 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 12 INTs; 359 rushing yards on 82 carries, 9 rushing TDs (17 games)
More episodes
2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026Trevor Lawrence 2025 Season in Review
QB4 on the season — 17 games, 19.9 PPR/game
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Trevor Lawrence 2025 Season in Review
QB4 on the season — 17 games, 19.9 PPR/game
Show notes & transcript
Trevor Lawrence finished 2025 as the number 4 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 5 quarterback in PPR per game. And the way he got there is the fun part. This wasn't the year Lawrence morphed into a pure pocket passer carving up defenses through the air — this was a dual-threat year on a 13-and-4 team that leaned on him to make plays with his legs in the red zone and stay efficient enough between the twenties to let an elite defense and a workhorse run game do the rest. He played all 17 games, the Jaguars won the AFC South as the three seed, and the rushing production was the difference between good and genuinely smashing.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because they tell a specific story. Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards on 560 attempts with 29 passing touchdowns — fifth-most in the league — and 12 interceptions. Add 359 rushing yards and 9 rushing scores on 82 carries, eleventh among all players in rushing touchdowns, and you've got the engine of a 19.9 PPR per game average. But the real-football efficiency was middling. His adjusted net yards per attempt was 6.3, seventeenth among qualified passers, and his completion percentage over expected was minus 2.7, thirtieth — meaning he completed passes at a lower rate than the average quarterback would have on his same throws. The consistency profile was steady floor with a ceiling on top: Lawrence cleared 15 PPR points in twelve of seventeen games, with the volatility living on the high end — a 44.3-point explosion against the Jets in Week 15 and a 31.2-point game at Denver in Week 16. The floor games existed — 7.8 against the Texans in Week 3, 9.8 in the rematch in Week 10 — but they were the exception. Managers got a reliable mid-to-high teens floor with monster weeks baked in whenever the rushing scores hit.
The play that captures the Lawrence fantasy season isn't a 50-yard bomb — it's third and 13 from the 15-yard line against the Jets in Week 15, first quarter, Jaguars up 7 to nothing. Lawrence drops back in shotgun, the pocket gives him a window, he takes off left and scrambles 15 yards into the end zone. That's the season in one play: a third-and-long that should be a punt becomes six points because Lawrence is a rushing touchdown threat from anywhere inside the 20. Nine rushing scores don't happen by accident. They happen because the offense trusts him to convert with his legs — and managers who drafted him cashed in on every one.
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