finished WR13 in total points on 124 targets with a clean touchdown rate, priced WR37 entirely on the Jaylen Waddle trade. The market over-corrected for the haircut.
Courtland Sutton 2026 Season Preview — a WR13 finish at a WR37 price
Show notes & transcript▾
Courtland Sutton finished as the number thirteen receiver in total points last season. He's the thirty-seventh receiver off the board. That's a two-round discount on a proven alpha — the catch is the new receiver Denver just traded for. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was a genuine WR1 line: seventy-four catches on a hundred twenty-four targets for a thousand seventeen yards and seven touchdowns, twelve-nine a game, WR20 per game and WR13 in total, all seventeen games as Bo Nix's clear favorite target. The signature was a seven-catch, a hundred thirteen-yard, one-score afternoon against Green Bay in Week 15. A high-volume, every-week alpha.
The arc is a late-career peak: a journeyman-ish middle stretch in the eight-to-twelve range, then a career-best fifteen a game in 2024 and another strong twelve-nine in 2025. He's a career-year-eight receiver playing the best ball of his life.
What the data says: a hundred twenty-four targets is genuine alpha volume — the stickiest receiver stat — and his touchdown share, a clean nineteen percent, has no luck to give back. By the numbers, this is a top-fifteen receiver priced like a flex.
The situation, per the reports, is the entire reason for the discount: Denver traded a first-round pick for Jaylen Waddle, who'll command targets — but Sutton has said he doesn't mind sharing, and the team still views him as the "X" receiver and Nix's top option. So the question isn't whether he stays an alpha; it's how much volume Waddle siphons. Even with a real haircut, a hundred-twenty-target receiver who finished WR13 has a long way to fall before WR37 looks right.
The price: pick seventy-seven, the thirty-seventh receiver. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. He finished WR13 on alpha volume with a clean touchdown rate, and he's priced WR37 entirely because of the Waddle addition. That's a real charge — Waddle will eat into the targets — but the market has over-corrected for it. The counter: if Waddle takes the number-one role outright, the discount is fair; but Sutton being the established X-receiver for a quarterback who already loves him is the more likely read.
September watch: the target split with Waddle — the whole question, and Sutton's X-receiver role is your baseline; and Bo Nix's development, the tide that lifts both. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
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2025: 74 catches for 1,017 yards, 7 TDs on 124 targets (17 games)
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2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026Courtland Sutton 2025 Season in Review
WR13 on the season — 17 games, 12.9 PPR/game
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Courtland Sutton 2025 Season in Review
WR13 on the season — 17 games, 12.9 PPR/game
Show notes & transcript
Courtland Sutton finished 2025 as the number 13 wide receiver in total PPR scoring — and the number 21 wide receiver in PPR per game. That gap tells you almost everything about his year. Sutton was the unquestioned number one target on a 14 and 3 Broncos team that earned the top seed in the AFC, and he played all 17 games. The durability is what got him into the top 15. But this was not a week-to-week alpha you could set your watch to — this was a volume profile that lived and died on whether Bo Nix found him in the end zone, and when the touchdowns didn't come, the ceiling came down with them.
Now let's dig into the numbers. Sutton caught 74 balls for 1,017 yards and 7 touchdowns on 124 targets — a 21 percent target share and a 34 percent share of his team's air yards. Genuine alpha workload. His total receiving expected points added came in at plus 45.6, so every time the ball went his way, it was a positive play for Denver more often than not. The catch is the offense around him. Bo Nix finished two points below expected completion percentage and ranked 21st among qualified starters in adjusted net yards per attempt — Sutton was the focal point of a passing game efficient on volume but not explosive per throw. And this was boom-or-bust, not a steady floor: he averaged 12.9 PPR per game, cleared 17 points in seven different weeks, and finished under 6 points in four others — including a 1.5 in Week 18 and a 1.6 in Week 2. Only 222 yards after the catch on the year means most of his production was the catch itself, not what came after. A yards-and-touchdowns receiver. When the touchdowns dried up, the floor caved in.
The play that captures the season came in Week 3 at the Chargers — fourth and 2 from the Los Angeles 52, 46 seconds left in the first half, Denver trailing 10 to nothing. Nix dropped back in shotgun and hit Sutton deep left for a 52-yard touchdown: 34 air yards, 18 after the catch, on a fourth-down conversion. That's the entire Sutton archetype in one snap — high air-yards target, downfield trust on a money down, finishes in the end zone. Six of his seven touchdowns traveled 11 air yards or more. When Denver pushed the ball downfield, Sutton was the guy. When they didn't, he was a 4-catch, 40-yard floor.
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