a QB7 finish anchored by a 30 percent rushing share and eight rushing scores, priced QB7. Losing A.J. Brown caps the passing, but the rushing floor is what you're paying for.
Jalen Hurts 2026 Season Preview — the floor is the tush push, fairly priced
Show notes & transcript▾
Jalen Hurts won a Super Bowl, lost his number-one receiver this offseason, and is priced as the seventh quarterback off the board. The passing might dip; the part of his game that drives fantasy value won't. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was a step down from his peak but still QB7: sixteen games, eighteen-eight a game, on thirty-two hundred passing yards, twenty-five touchdowns, just six interceptions, plus four hundred twenty-one rushing yards and eight rushing scores. The signature was a thirty-one point game against Dallas — one passing touchdown, two on the ground — the exact shape of his value. Accurate, too: his completion percentage over expected ranked tenth.
The arc is a strong run with a recent ceiling: a twenty-five-a-game MVP-level peak in 2022, then twenty-one, twenty-one, and eighteen-eight. The passing volume has drifted down, but the floor has stayed remarkably firm.
Here's why the floor holds, and it's the pattern that matters most at the position. Quarterbacks who get a quarter or more of their fantasy points from rushing repeat as top-six at sixty-one percent, versus twenty-four for pocket passers — and Hurts, with a thirty-percent rushing share and eight rushing touchdowns, lives in that safe tier. The goal-line rushing role is the stickiest, most defense-proof source of points in fantasy. The passing can fluctuate; the legs and the tush push don't.
The situation, per the reports, is real churn: A.J. Brown was traded to New England, DeVonta Smith becomes the clear number one, and a new coordinator, Sean Mannion, is installing a more under-center, play-action scheme. Losing Brown caps the passing ceiling; none of it touches the rushing floor that anchors his value.
The price: pick seventy-two and a half, QB7. Verdict: NO CALL — the most defense-proof floor outside the very top of the position, priced right around where it should be. The counter that keeps it from a buy: losing Brown and changing schemes adds real downside to the passing, and at quarterback you can get most of this production later. The counter that keeps it from a fade: the rushing floor is genuinely elite, and that's what you're paying QB7 for. Pay it for the floor, not the ceiling.
September watch: the rushing and goal-line volume — the engine; and the passing efficiency without Brown in the new Mannion scheme. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
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2025: 3,224 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 6 INTs; 421 rushing yards on 105 carries, 8 rushing TDs (16 games)
More episodes
2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026Jalen Hurts 2025 Season in Review
QB8 on the season — 16 games, 18.8 PPR/game
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Jalen Hurts 2025 Season in Review
QB8 on the season — 16 games, 18.8 PPR/game
Show notes & transcript
Jalen Hurts finished 2025 as the number 8 quarterback in total fantasy points and the number 7 in points per game. That ranking tells you exactly what kind of year this was — quietly productive, dual-threat as always, but never the league-winning ceiling the true difference-makers delivered. Hurts played all 16 games, the Eagles went 11 and 6 and won the NFC East, and he was on the field for every meaningful snap. But the rushing touchdowns carried the fantasy weight, the passing volume stayed modest, and one disastrous afternoon dragged the average down in a way the elite quarterbacks just didn't have on their ledger.
Now let's dig into the numbers. Hurts threw for 3,224 yards on 454 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and added 421 rushing yards on 105 carries with 8 rushing scores. That rushing touchdown total ranked sixteenth in the league among all players — and it's the engine of his fantasy value. Without those 8 ground scores he's a mid-range starter; with them, a top-ten quarterback. The efficiency was genuinely good: completion percentage over expectation of plus 3.1, tenth among qualified passers, and adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.7, twelfth. He averaged 18.8 points per game with a steady floor most weeks — eleven of his sixteen games landed between 14 and 31 fantasy points. But the boom weeks were rare and the floor cracked twice: 8.9 against the Bills in Week 17, and a brutal 2.4-point disaster at the Chargers in Week 14 where he threw four interceptions. Pull that Chargers game out and the profile looks much steadier. You can't pull it out. Variance is variance.
The play that captures the season came in Week 7 against the Vikings — third quarter, second and 5 from his own 21, Eagles up 14 to 9. Hurts dropped back and hit DeVonta Smith down the middle for a 79-yard touchdown. 49 air yards, one throw, game flipped. That play alone added more than six expected points, and it's the version of Hurts the data keeps hinting at: when the protection holds and the deep shot is there, he hits it at an above-expectation rate. The problem for fantasy was those moments didn't come often enough to push him into the top tier. The volume and the touchdown distribution made him a reliable starter — not a weekly cheat code.
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