DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith scored four touchdowns all of last season and finished as the number twenty-eight receiver per game. He is also, as of this offseason, the unquestioned number one receiver in Philadelphia — because A.J. Brown is gone. Put those two facts together and you have the cleanest value on this board. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The season was a tale of volume without payoff: a clean thousand yards on seventy-seven catches and a hundred thirteen targets, all seventeen games, as the verified number-one receiver on an eleven-and-six division champion — but only four touchdowns, on a top-three red-zone offense. The scores went to Jalen Hurts on the ground and Saquon Barkley; Smith got the volume and almost none of the end zone. The signature was a nine-catch, a hundred eighty-three-yard explosion at Minnesota. The talent and the role were there; the touchdowns simply weren't.

The arc is steady alpha production: he's posted four straight thousand-yard-ish seasons as a featured receiver. This wasn't a decline — it was a touchdown drought layered on top of a run-first offense that funneled scores elsewhere.

And here's why it's a CALL. The four touchdowns are the tell. His touchdown share — twelve percent — is the lowest of any receiver in this batch, historically suppressed. Touchdown production is the least sticky stat year to year; volume is the most. Smith kept a hundred-thirteen-target alpha role while his scoring bottomed out. Low-touchdown receivers don't keep starving — they rebound. You're buying a proven thousand-yard receiver at the absolute floor of his touchdown variance.

Now the situation, which turns a good call into a great one, per the reports: A.J. Brown was traded to New England, vacating a hundred twenty-one targets in Philadelphia. Smith goes from co-alpha to undisputed WR1, with only a rookie behind him. More targets, more red-zone looks, the same quarterback — every arrow points up at exactly the moment his touchdown luck was due to turn. He's reportedly attacking the role like a man possessed.

The price: pick thirty-one and a half, the thirteenth receiver. Verdict: CALL — underpriced, and it's our most confident buy in the batch. The market is pricing the four touchdowns as who he is; they're the noise, the thousand yards and the new WR1 role are the signal. The counter, fairly: Philadelphia is a run-first offense that may always suppress receiver scoring somewhat, and Brown's vacated targets aren't guaranteed to all flow to Smith. But a thousand-yard alpha with positive touchdown regression and a target-share promotion, at WR13, is a gift.

September watch: the target share with Brown gone — anything north of his old role confirms the thesis; and the red-zone looks, where four touchdowns has enormous room to climb. Your guys, every week. That closes the batch — the countdown rolls on down the board. Next preview's queued.