TE16 as a rookie, priced TE3; the Ben Johnson scheme is the only thing keeping it a lean.
Colston Loveland 2026 Season Preview — a rookie tight end at a TE1 price
Show notes & transcript▾
Colston Loveland finished as the number sixteen tight end per game as a rookie — and he's priced as the third tight end off the board. That's a leap-of-faith premium at the position where leaps come slowest. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The rookie season showed flashes: fifty-eight catches, seven hundred thirteen yards, six touchdowns, the team lead in receiving on eighty-two targets — and a signature moment, a fifty-eight-yard game-winning touchdown at Cincinnati with twenty-five seconds left, twenty-two in the air and thirty-six after the catch. Ten-three a game. But the variance was extreme: five games under five points, including a Week 2 zero, against three big games. A promising rookie line with no week-to-week floor.
The arc is one year, so the TE3 price is a pure bet on the year-two jump. And tight end is the position where that bet is hardest — the learning curve is real, and rookie tight ends rarely arrive as fantasy starters. The stickiest tight-end stat is targets per game, and his rookie volume — about five a game — doesn't yet support a top-three finish.
What repeats: the target role should grow, which is the bull case. What the price assumes is a full breakout, and the base rate for a rookie tight end leaping into the top three in year two is thin.
The situation is genuinely the best part, per the reports: Ben Johnson's offense, DJ Moore traded to Buffalo opening targets, and Johnson publicly calling Loveland a centerpiece he wants to feature. That's a real tailwind — a creative play-caller who wants the ball in his hands, with vacated volume to give. It's the reason this is a lean and not a hard fade.
The price: pick forty-one, the third tight end. Verdict: LEAN — overpriced. You're paying a top-three tight-end price for a player who finished sixteenth as a rookie, betting on a second-year leap the position rarely delivers on schedule. The counter, and it's legitimate: the Ben Johnson scheme plus vacated targets is the exact situation that could produce the leap — but you're paying for it to happen, not getting it at a discount.
September watch: the target share with DJ Moore gone — if it climbs toward eight a game, the leap's on; and the red-zone role, where six rookie touchdowns could grow. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
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2025: 58 catches for 713 yards, 6 TDs on 82 targets (16 games)
More episodes
2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026Colston Loveland 2025 Season in Review
TE12 on the season — 16 games, 10.3 PPR/game
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Colston Loveland 2025 Season in Review
TE12 on the season — 16 games, 10.3 PPR/game
Show notes & transcript
Colston Loveland finished his rookie year as the number 12 tight end in total PPR scoring and the number 16 tight end in PPR per game. That's a real story: a rookie tight end walking into Chicago and finishing as the team's leading receiver — 58 catches, 713 yards, 6 touchdowns on 82 targets across 16 games. He wasn't just on the field. He was the engine of the passing game for an eleven-and-six division winner. The rookie tight end label usually means slow burn and red-zone packages; Loveland skipped that script and was Caleb Williams' top option from the jump.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because the fantasy ranking and the football reality don't quite match — and that gap is the whole story. Loveland commanded a 17 percent target share and 16 percent of the air yards. For a rookie tight end, that's lead-receiver usage, not complementary usage. But the per-game PPR sat at 10.3, back-half-of-startable territory, and the shape was boom-or-bust. Five games under five PPR points, including a zero in the Detroit blowout in Week 2. Then three games over twenty — 29.8 against the Bengals, 21.4 at the 49ers, 25.1 against the Lions in Week 18 — and those spikes are what dragged the season total to the number 12 finish. Thin floor, elite ceiling. Six touchdowns on 82 targets is excellent scoring efficiency, and he tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns on an offense that finished eighth in total offensive expected points added.
The play that crystallizes the season came in Week 9 at Cincinnati, a 47 to 42 shootout. Bears trailing 42 to 41, 25 seconds left, first and ten from the Bengals' 58. Williams went deep middle to Loveland — 22 yards in the air, 36 after the catch. 58-yard touchdown. Game-winner. That single play tells you everything: he wasn't just a chain-mover, he was the guy Williams trusted in the biggest moment of the regular season, and the catch-and-run was real. The ceiling is there. The week-to-week floor is what kept him outside the top ten.
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