QB5 in total points but 36th in completion percentage over expected, priced QB6. A fair number on an ascending quarterback whose accuracy still has to prove out.
Caleb Williams 2026 Season Preview — a top-5 finish on bottom-tier accuracy
Show notes & transcript▾
Caleb Williams finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in total points last season — and graded as one of the least accurate passers in the league. Both are true, and together they're why his price is almost exactly right. The Muffed 2026 preview.
The 2025 season was a real step forward in fantasy terms: seventeen games, eighteen-six a game, QB8 per game and QB5 in total, on thirty-nine forty-two passing yards, twenty-seven touchdowns, seven picks, plus three hundred eighty-three rushing yards. The signature was a thirty-nine point eruption against Cincinnati in Week 9. Year two under Ben Johnson, and the points went up.
The arc is encouraging on the surface: fifteen a game as a rookie, eighteen-six in year two. Ascending, with an offensive-minded head coach and a young receiving corps growing up around him.
But here's the number that holds the call at neutral, and it's the one we trust most. Williams's completion percentage over expected was minus six-point-nine — thirty-sixth in the league, near the very bottom. His QB8 fantasy finish was built on volume, scrambling, and scheme, not on accurate passing. His adjusted net yards per attempt was better, around eleventh, so it isn't all bleak — but a quarterback completing nearly seven percent below expectation is not yet efficient, and that's the engine that has to improve for the points to hold.
The situation, per the reports, is the bull case for why the accuracy could come: it's year two in Ben Johnson's quarterback-friendly system, and the young weapons — Odunze, Burden, Loveland — are a year better, even with DJ Moore traded away. Continuity and scheme are exactly what a developing quarterback's accuracy needs.
The price: pick sixty-nine, the sixth quarterback. Verdict: NO CALL — he finished QB5 in total points and he's priced QB6, and that one-spot gap is the market fairly pricing an ascending quarterback whose underlying accuracy still says "prove it." The counter cuts both ways: if the Ben Johnson scheme fixes the accuracy, QB6 is cheap; if the minus-seven CPOE is who he is, the fantasy points regress and the price is right, maybe a touch high. A fair number on a fascinating, unfinished player — pay it knowing the accuracy is the swing.
September watch: the completion percentage over expected — the entire question of whether the QB5 finish is real; and the rushing volume, the points that travel regardless. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.
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2025: 3,942 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 7 INTs; 383 rushing yards on 77 carries, 3 rushing TDs (17 games)
More episodes
2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026Caleb Williams 2025 Season in Review
QB5 on the season — 17 games, 18.7 PPR/game
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Caleb Williams 2025 Season in Review
QB5 on the season — 17 games, 18.7 PPR/game
Show notes & transcript
Caleb Williams finished 2025 as the number 5 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 8 in points per game. That's a real fantasy asset over a full 17-game slate — and it came inside a Bears team that went 11-and-6, won the NFC North, and reached the Divisional Round before the Rams sent them home in overtime. The identity was dual-threat: rushing floor and touchdown volume carried the fantasy value while traditional passing efficiency lagged. Williams played every game, threw 27 touchdowns against just seven interceptions, added three more on the ground, and even caught one. A high-floor weekly play whose ceiling came from his legs — and from a defense that kept handing him the ball on a league-leading 33 takeaways.
Now let's dig into the numbers, because the gap between Williams the fantasy quarterback and Williams the real-life passer is the whole story. He averaged 18.7 PPR per game on a genuinely boom-or-bust profile. The touchdown volume was elite — 27 passing scores ranked sixth in the league on 568 attempts — and that's the single biggest reason he finished top five. But the efficiency underneath was rough. His 58.1 completion percentage against an expected 65 put him at minus 6.9 over expectation, 36th among qualified passers. His adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.8 ranked 11th — solid, not special. The week-to-week swings tell it: a 38.7 in the Cincinnati shootout and a 29.1 against Dallas, but a 4.7 against the Saints, a 9.5 against the Eagles, and three more weeks under 12. The legs papered over the bad passing weeks — 383 yards on 77 carries at five a clip, plus three rushing scores — but when neither the legs nor the touchdowns showed up, he got muffed.
The play that captures the season came in Cincinnati in Week 9. Bears down 42 to 41, 25 seconds left, first and 10 from their own 42. Williams took the shotgun snap and fired deep middle to rookie tight end Colston Loveland — 58 yards, walk-off touchdown, 47 to 42. That's the Williams fantasy thesis in one snap. The completion percentage will frustrate you. The sacks will frustrate you. But the touchdown equity and the moments where he uncorks one downfield are why he finished as the number 5 quarterback in total scoring.
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