The Muffed Take
ADP #97Muffed: LEAN: UNDERPRICED

the NFL's second-most accurate passer and a QB6 per-game rate over an injury-shortened nine games, now with Mike Evans added, priced QB13. The injury discount is the opportunity.

2026 PreviewJun 15, 2026

Brock Purdy 2026 Season Preview — the second-most accurate passer in football, at QB13

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Brock Purdy graded as the second-most accurate quarterback in the NFL last season, and a top-six fantasy quarterback per game — in just nine games, because injuries cost him the rest. He's the thirteenth quarterback off the board, and San Francisco just handed him Mike Evans. The Muffed 2026 preview.

The 2025 season was excellent when he played and too short: nine games, nineteen-seven a game, QB6 per game, on twenty touchdowns against ten picks — though the missed time left him QB23 in total. The signature was a three-touchdown, two-rushing-score, thirty-seven point game against Chicago in Week 17. And the efficiency was elite: his completion percentage over expected ranked second in the league. The talent and the accuracy are real.

The arc is steady, ascending production: eleven-eight as a rookie starter, then eighteen-five, seventeen-eight, and nineteen-seven. Every healthy season has been a solid-to-strong QB1 line.

What the data says: he's more pocket passer than runner, so he lacks the elite rushing floor — that's the structural caution. But the accuracy is genuinely top-tier, the per-game production has been QB1-level every healthy year, and the price is built on a nine-game injury sample, not the player.

The situation, per the reports, is a clear upgrade: San Francisco signed Mike Evans to be Purdy's number-one outside receiver, joining a healthy Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey. A top-two-accuracy quarterback with that supporting cast, at QB13, is the kind of price that comes only from a missed-games season.

The price: pick ninety-five, the thirteenth quarterback. Verdict: LEAN — underpriced. The second-best accuracy in football, a QB6 per-game rate, a loaded receiving corps with Evans added, priced QB13 on injury discount. The counter: he's a pocket passer without a rushing floor, last year's injuries are a real flag, and quarterback is a position you can wait on. But the per-game production and the efficiency say this price is too low if he's healthy.

September watch: his health, the whole discount; and the chemistry with Mike Evans, the ceiling-raiser. Your guys, every week. Next preview's queued.

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2025 by the numbers
Finish
QB23
PPR / game
19.7
Total PPR
177.4
Games
9
2026 ADP
#97

2025: 2,167 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 10 INTs; 147 rushing yards on 33 carries, 3 rushing TDs (9 games)

More episodes

2025 ReviewMay 11, 2026

Brock Purdy 2025 Season in Review

QB23 on the season — 9 games, 19.7 PPR/game

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Show notes & transcript

Brock Purdy finished 2025 as the number 23 quarterback in total PPR scoring and the number 6 quarterback in PPR per game. That gap tells the whole story: when Purdy played, he was a high-end fantasy quarterback. When he didn't, he was a roster spot collecting dust. He suited up just nine times, and the 49ers leaned on Mac Jones for the bulk of the season. The frustrating part? Down the stretch, Purdy was cooking — and that late-season run was some of the best quarterback play in the league on a per-game basis.

Now let's dig into the numbers, because the efficiency profile is loud. Purdy completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 2,167 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions across those nine games. His completion percentage over expected was plus 5.1 — second-best among qualified passers in the entire league. Adjusted net yards per attempt: 7.0, ninth among qualified starters. This wasn't a checkdown merchant padding a completion rate. He averaged 19.7 PPR points per game, but the consistency picture splits clean down the middle — this was boom-or-bust, not a steady floor. Through Week 13, he had exactly one game above 20. Then from Week 15 on, he ripped off 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9 against the Titans, Colts, and Bears — three straight smashes powered by multi-touchdown games and a rushing contribution that quietly added 147 yards and 3 scores. The floor games were ugly: 7.3 against Carolina on three picks, 5.2 in the Week 18 Seattle loss. But the ceiling, when it showed up, was league-winning.

The play that captures Purdy's season best came in Week 17 against the Bears — fourth quarter, 2:23 left, second and 10 from the Chicago 38, San Francisco trailing 38 to 35. Purdy dropped a 38-yard touchdown on Jauan Jennings down the middle, 21 yards in the air, a walk-off dagger in a 42 to 38 win. Same game he'd thrown a pick-six on the opening drive. Ceiling and floor in the same afternoon — and when Purdy was right, he was a top-six fantasy quarterback by per-game scoring. The body just wouldn't let him prove it across a full season.

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